Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.949637 1.107527 1.283129 1.492869 1.736567 2.010812 2.342919
2025-01-05 0.667780 0.869772 1.119773 1.451800 1.881235 2.418097 3.140781
2025-01-12 0.513199 0.722618 1.002089 1.402051 1.959832 2.710545 3.798918
2025-01-19 0.412892 0.619530 0.912738 1.358678 2.019868 2.964695 4.419499
2025-01-26 0.358187 0.567787 0.881372 1.384013 2.169678 3.351793 5.268769
2025-02-02 0.330811 0.550704 0.895580 1.474834 2.423796 3.918563 6.456756
2025-02-09 0.298994 0.520561 0.883395 1.519443 2.607155 4.393697 7.557565
2025-02-16 0.268252 0.486885 0.859538 1.539232 2.748747 4.813812 8.615990
2025-02-23 0.239290 0.451585 0.827258 1.538377 2.851779 5.176882 9.616299
2025-03-02 0.212875 0.416821 0.790730 1.523776 2.926061 5.494746 10.570268
2025-03-09 0.192345 0.390024 0.764819 1.524440 3.026709 5.868929 11.670088
2025-03-16 0.168348 0.353032 0.714663 1.471382 3.016447 6.031658 12.380317
2025-03-23 0.163224 0.353889 0.739364 1.571911 3.326411 6.857024 14.523294
2025-03-30 0.144011 0.322793 0.695952 1.527735 3.336726 7.089917 15.493108
2025-04-06 0.126687 0.293224 0.651682 1.475378 3.322001 7.267665 16.366371
2025-04-13 0.112202 0.267869 0.613019 1.429755 3.315149 7.459469 17.291810
2025-04-20 0.104872 0.257899 0.606949 1.456404 3.472898 8.026922 19.128326
2025-04-27 0.102921 0.260381 0.629418 1.551935 3.801169 9.013826 22.054381
2025-05-04 0.097823 0.254454 0.631428 1.598855 4.020054 9.774860 24.541092
2025-05-11 0.091600 0.244819 0.623262 1.619670 4.177791 10.409698 26.799879
2025-05-18 0.084791 0.232695 0.607360 1.618771 4.280715 10.923003 28.817582
2025-05-25 0.077915 0.219434 0.586898 1.603413 4.344560 11.346747 30.659332
2025-06-01 0.072457 0.209276 0.573189 1.604112 4.450581 11.889488 32.880600